Markets pulled back overnight as a risk-off tone dominated Wall Street. Major US benchmarks closed near session lows, the S&P 500 fell -1.12%, the Dow -0.84%, the Nasdaq -1.90%, and the Russell 2000 -1.63%. Selling was broad-based, led by the Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors, both down more than 2%.

Retail favourites including Nvidia, Meta and Tesla came under heavy pressure, with the most-shorted basket, nuclear-energy names and cryptocurrencies also leading the decline. Despite the broader weakness, Elon Musk secured court approval for his trillion-dollar Tesla pay package, a landmark ruling that reignited debate around executive compensation and shareholder alignment.

Commentary from Industry Leaders

This week's insights come from Goldman Sachs Exchanges, featuring Allison Nathan, Senior Strategist at Goldman Sachs Research and Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs' Chief China Economist. The discussion centered on China's resilience amid US trade pressures and the broader implications of the recent Trump-Xi meeting. 

Hui Shan noted that despite ongoing tariffs, Chinese exports remain robust, underpinned by structural growth in high-tech manufacturing and adaptive supply-chain rerouting through ASEAN economies. She also highlighted that the latest trade summit marked a shift, positioning China as an economic equal to the US rather than a reactive participant.

Key Takeaways:

• China’s export volume is on track for 8% growth in 2025, despite 30% U.S. tariff rates.

• High-tech manufacturing and semiconductor exports continue to expand.

• Rerouting through ASEAN nations has softened tariff impacts.

• Goldman Sachs upgraded China’s GDP forecasts to 4.8% (2026) and 4.7% (2027).

• AI adoption could boost China’s GDP by up to 8% over the next decade, aiding its move beyond the middle-income trap.

Economic News 

RBA Rates 

RBA held interest rates at 3.60% which was widely expected, however the inflation figure was higher than expected too which now pushes out rate cut expectations.

Higher rates for longer reduce the attractiveness of long duration assets and favour income/real asset strategies. Given the tighter credit cost, investors should keep an eye on their property and real estate exposure. 

US Government Shutdown 

The US Federal government has been in shutdown since 1 October 2025 and it has now become the longest shutdown in US history. 

Sectoral impacts: Beneficiaries of federal contracting or grant funding (research, infrastructure, defence, social programs) are under strain, this could affect small-cap / mid-cap companies with government exposure, as well as private-market credit/loan portfolios if payments or contracts stall.

Data and policy distortion: With key agencies closed or operating with reduced capacity, macro data (jobs, manufacturing, economic releases) may be delayed or distorted, this adds uncertainty for central banks, portfolio strategists, and high-net-worth asset allocators.

Market Snapshot 

• Australia: ASX opened slightly lower this morning. 

• United States: Dow -0.84%, S&P 500 -1.12%, Nasdaq -1.90%. 

• Bonds: US 10-year yield at 4.09% and Australian 10-year yield at 4.36%.  

• Gold: Increased overnight.

Key Events Coming Up

• Thursday, November 13, 2025: US Core CPI (MoM) (Oct).

Investment Update

RiverX is being offered access to a credit partners fund by an international investment bank. This opportunity is yet to be approved by our investment committee and will only be put forward if there is sufficient interest.

This opportunity is open to wholesale clients only.

Characteristics of the Fund

The fund invests in first lien, senior secured loans to upper middle market US companies. Loans typically mature in 6-7 years, but average holding is ~3 years. The fund targets distributions of ~100% of income earned, with total net returns tracking at 13.3% since inception.

Reason to Consider

• Attractive Returns: 13.3% net inception-to-date return since launch in Dec 2023.

• Monthly Income: Distributes ~100% of taxable income monthly.

• Strong Sponsor Backing: Focus on PE-backed U.S. companies with high free cash flow.

• Exclusive Deal Flow: Sourced via the investment banks 1,800+ bankers across 95+ industries.

• Conservative Credit: First lien, senior secured loans with low loan-to-value ratios.

• The investment banks investment committee averages over 30 years of relevant experience structuring, underwriting and managing leveraged loans in all phases of the credit cycle.

Please let me know if you would like further information, we are currently looking for expressions of interest.