Global equity markets declined overnight, with Wall Street slipping from record-intraday highs as investors became cautious over the trajectory of the Iran conflict and its effects through energy markets and corporate earnings.

The S&P 500 finished down 0.41% at 7,108, having briefly touched a new all-time high during the session, a pattern mirrored by the Nasdaq, which also set a record before closing 0.89% lower. The Dow shed around 180 points, or 0.36%, to end the day just above 49,300.

Commentary from Industry Leaders

Citi Wealth released their 2Q26 Macro Investment View, and below are the sections most relevant for clients with exposure to private credit, commercial real estate and private equity.

Macro Backdrop

Markets absorbed multiple simultaneous shocks in Q1 - energy disruption from the Middle East conflict, geopolitical stress and a sharp repricing of the global rate path from easing to tightening. Volatility is elevated and likely to persist through the next 3-6 months. The U.S. economy, however, continues to show resilience in labour markets and consumer spending.

Relevant Themes

Private Credit

The report had a cautious tone on credit broadly - global spreads remain historically tight and are not adequately compensating investors for risk, particularly given the Middle East conflict's potential to stress corporate margins and growth. The team has reduced public fixed income spread exposure.

For private credit specifically, the report flags heightened scrutiny around lockups, gates and illiquidity risks given the current volatility backdrop. Clients should be prepared for ongoing conversations about risk/reward at this stage of the cycle.

The preference is to take equity risk over credit risk until spread compensation improves.

Commercial Real Estate & Infrastructure

The report identifies infrastructure and energy related real assets as a compelling long-term opportunity, driven by the accelerating push for energy independence (renewables, nuclear, grid modernization, storage). This directly supports the thesis for infrastructure-adjacent CRE.

Diversifying/uncorrelated assets, including real estate and infrastructure, are highlighted as critical portfolio components given their tie to real economic activity and inflation-hedging characteristics.

The higher-for-longer rate environment remains a headwind for rate-sensitive and long-duration assets, so selectivity within CRE is important.

Private Equity

U.S. large-cap fundamentals remain the strongest globally (superior margins, earnings revisions and interest coverage ratios vs. Europe and small caps), which bodes well for U.S.-focused PE strategies.

The physical AI supply chain and energy security infrastructure are flagged as durable, multi-year thematic opportunities, relevant for those evaluating PE exposure in industrials, automation, robotics and energy transition.

Government defence and infrastructure spending is expected to rise materially (NATO allies targeting 5% of GDP by 2035), creating a long-cycle tailwind for PE in those sectors.

Economic News

The RBA Board will meet again on 5 May. The current cash rate sits at 4.10%, set at the March meeting. Markets are pricing approximately a 60% probability of a further hike to 4.35%, with CBA, NAB and Westpac all forecasting a rise.

The RBA delivered back-to-back rate hikes in February and March 2026, lifting the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.10% in response to renewed inflation pressures, with housing costs, recreation and food all contributing to an annual CPI reading of 3.8% for the December 2025 quarter. The March decision was passed 5 votes to 4, with the Board citing capacity pressures and sharply higher fuel prices from the Middle East conflict as creating a material risk that inflation would remain above target for longer.

Market Snapshot

• Australia: ASX lower again on US-Iran uncertainty

• United States: Dow -0.36%, S&P 500 -0.41%, Nasdaq -0.89%

• Bonds: US 10-year yield at 4.32%, Australian 10-year yield at 5.00%

• Gold: Declined overnight

Key Events Coming Up

• Tuesday 28 April: US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) - measures the level of confidence consumers have in the economy. When consumers are optimistic, they tend to spend more, which increases consumption and overall economic growth

• Wednesday 29 April: US Fed Interest Rate Decision - FOMC members vote on where to set the target interest rate

• Thursday 30 April: US Initial Jobless Claims - measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week

Investment Update

Important Information - Wholesale Clients Only

River X is in the process of reviewing a potential secondary investment in SpaceX, one of the world's most strategically significant private companies.

SpaceX is accessed at an indicative valuation of approximately US$1.25 trillion through an employee secondary transaction. A potential liquidity event is targeted from 2026, subject to market conditions. Market participants continue to assess a potential IPO pathway, with long-term valuation scenarios referenced in the US$1.75 trillion+ range, driven by Starlink's global connectivity platform, spectrum ownership, and SpaceX's leadership in launch services.

To help us understand qualified demand and keep interested parties informed, we're inviting eligible wholesale investors to register an Expression of Interest (EOI).

Why Register Now?

• EOIs allow us to prioritise communication if the transaction proceeds

• You'll receive timely updates as due diligence progresses and final terms are confirmed

• No offer is being made at this stage - EOIs are non-binding and for information purposes only

Market Highlights (Indicative Only)

• Potential IPO size: ~US$75bn primary issuance

• Long-term valuation scenarios: US$1.5-2.0tn (subject to market conditions)

• Revenue growth: ~US$15.5bn (FY25A) rising to ~US$18.0bn (FY26E)

• EBITDA forecast: ~US$7.7bn for FY26

• Subscriber base: ~8.6 million Starlink subscribers

• Strategic positioning: Global leader in launch services, satellite broadband, and space-based data connectivity

• Institutional backing: Founders Fund, Google, Fidelity, Baillie Gifford, Andreessen Horowitz

Next Steps

If you would like to register an expression of interest, please get in touch with us today.

Important Information - Wholesale Clients Only

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forward-looking statements, target returns, or yield estimates are indicative only, based on assumptions and current expectations and are subject to risks, uncertainties and change. Actual outcomes may differ materially. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this communication.