Strategy
Why Negative Gearing Changes Could Shake Up Australia's Housing Market

Christopher Gerace
6 Minutes

Westpac forecasts property transactions could fall 20%, with investor activity dropping up to 34%, following budget changes to negative gearing and CGT. Plus: ceasefire optimism lifts US tech stocks
US sharemarkets hit all-time highs overnight, driven largely by a strong day for technology stocks. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, while the Nasdaq climbed just under 1%.
Markets got an extra boost late in the day after reports that the US and Iran had agreed to a 60-day ceasefire extension, with both sides continuing talks over Iran's nuclear program. Geopolitical tension has been a source of nervousness for investors in recent months, so any progress on that front tends to be well received. The agreement still needs President Trump's final approval, so it's one to watch, but for now, markets took it as a positive sign.
Commentary from Industry Leaders
Last week we attended The Inside Network's Equities & Growth Symposium in Sydney and came away with some reminders about what really matters in portfolio construction right now. The opening session set the tone well, going into detail about how strategy must always precede investment selection. The conversation isn't about what to buy or sell - it's about understanding what a client is genuinely trying to achieve and building every decision from that foundation. Equally important was the point around volatile markets being a communication opportunity rather than a reason to go quiet. The advisers who stay close to clients through periods of stress, explaining what's happening and why the long-term plan remains sound, are the ones who build the deepest trust. The democratisation of private markets was also front of mind, with the panel noting that while wholesale clients now have access to opportunities that simply weren't available a decade ago, realising that potential demands rigorous due diligence and the ability to translate complexity into clear, simple messages for clients.
The second session tackled AI as an investment theme, and the framing from Baillie Gifford's Kyle McEnery was worth sitting with: AI is a genuine multi-decade structural shift, yet markets keep absorbing its implications reactively, consistently underestimating demand and being caught off guard by each new wave of disruption.
The key insight for long-term investors is that exceptional returns will come from a small number of companies, and the discipline required is less about identifying them than holding them through inevitable drawdowns. Perhaps most usefully, the session challenged the idea that hyperscalers and frontier model companies are in competition. The argument was that they are in symbiosis - the compute, balance sheet and distribution advantages of established platforms are as structurally important as the intelligence layer being built on top of them, and both deserve consideration in a long-term growth portfolio.
Economic News
The federal budget's changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax are starting to worry housing market watchers. Property investment has become less tax-effective overnight, and Westpac is forecasting that the number of homes bought and sold could fall by 20 per cent, with investor activity dropping by as much as 34 per cent over the next 18 months. Fewer investors buying means fewer properties coming onto the market, which doesn't help anyone looking to buy a home. The RBA also flagged a concern that highly leveraged property investors (many carrying over $1 million in debt) could be forced to sell simultaneously if values start falling, which would push prices down faster and further than a normal market correction. It's still early days since the budget was handed down, but the signals are worth paying attention to.
For investors holding property or property-related assets, now is a good time to review how your portfolio is positioned. Concentration in a single asset class - particularly one facing regulatory headwinds and potential price pressure - warrants a closer look. A well-constructed portfolio spreads risk across multiple asset classes, and there are compelling opportunities in private credit, infrastructure and diversified equities that can deliver strong risk-adjusted returns without the concentration risk that comes with direct property exposure. If you'd like to discuss how your current holdings are positioned for the environment ahead, we'd welcome the conversation.
Market Snapshot
Australia: ASX rebounds after ceasefire extension
United States: Dow 0.05%, S&P 500 0.58%, Nasdaq 0.91%
Bonds: US 10-year yield at 4.46%, Australian 10-year yield at 4.89%
Gold: Increased overnight
Key Events Coming Up
Thursday 4 June: US Initial Jobless Claims
Investment Update
On Our Radar: AI Private Markets Access
One of the most consistent frustrations for sophisticated investors over the past decade has been watching the AI revolution unfold largely out of reach. The companies driving the most significant technological transformation of our time have remained private during their highest-growth phases, and by the time many list on public markets, the most compelling returns have already been captured by a small group of institutional investors.
A newly structured ASX-listed trust is set to change that, offering eligible investors direct exposure to a concentrated portfolio of 12 to 20 private AI companies across four segments:
Foundation Models (20-50%) - the large-scale AI systems underpinning the entire industry
Picks & Shovels (20-50%) - the chips, data infrastructure and compute that power AI development
AI Applications (10-30%) - platforms and products delivering AI functionality directly to end users
Physical AI (10-30%) - robotics, autonomous systems and industrial automation
The structure combines the accessibility of an ASX-listed vehicle with a targeted seven-year life, with capital returned to investors as underlying holdings are realised through IPO, secondary sale or acquisition.
Important: The Cornerstone Offer closes this Sunday 1 June at 5:00pm Sydney time. The general offer follows in mid-June, with ASX trading expected to commence 2 July 2026.
This is open to wholesale investors only with a long time horizon and genuine conviction in the AI theme. If you'd like to explore further, please reach out as soon as possible and we can walk you through the details and assess suitability for your portfolio.


