Global equity markets moved lower overnight as renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran weighed on investor sentiment.  

By the close, major indices had recovered some losses, though the Dow Jones still finished down around 1.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted more modest declines. Despite the broader weakness, Berkshire Hathaway stood out, which gained after announcing a renewed share buyback program.  

Commentary from Industry Leaders

Themes I'm hearing from managers this earnings season: 

A consistent thread across results has been that AI disruption is proving a lot more nuanced in practice than the markets recent narrative-driven selloffs suggest. In a few cases, AI is showing up less as an existential threat and more as a distribution and workflow enhancer for incumbents that already sit on trusted vertical data and embedded customer relationships. 

In the same spirit, I spoke with 5AM Capital (a concentrated global equity manager) and their takeaway was that this is a period where AI narrative has temporarily overwhelmed fundamentals in various sectors including software. Their philosophy is “quality first, price matters” with an emphasis on durable moats, pricing power, resilient balance sheets, and owner-oriented capital allocation.

5AM Capital pointed to Rightmove as an example ('the REA of the UK'). Management shared early evidence that users engaging with its conversational search are “almost 3x more likely to send a lead,” while also noting token prices are falling 80%–90% annually and that "ChatGPT referrals are still under 0.5%.” Their framing was the value is not in AI itself. It’s what AI can deliver when it sits on the best property data in the U.K.

5AM Capital note that when “quality” is out of favour (as it is currently), forward returns can improve and referenced the late-1990s as a useful analogue, quality underperformed in 1999 before delivering a sustained period of outperformance in the early 2000s.

Economic News 

Bond markets experienced a sharp global sell-off as the escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and reignited inflation concerns. 

Traditionally seen as safe havens during geopolitical tensions, government bonds instead fell as investors priced in the risk that higher energy prices could drive inflation and force central banks to keep interest rates elevated. In Australia, the three-year government bond yield briefly climbed to a two-year high of 4.39%, while the 10-year yield rose to around 4.75%. Brent crude has surged roughly 14% this week to above US$82 per barrel, with estimates suggesting a 10% increase in oil prices could add around 0.2–0.3 percentage points to inflation. The rise in energy costs is creating a challenge for central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, as stronger economic growth and persistent inflation raise the possibility of further interest rate increases in the months ahead. 

Market Snapshot 

• Australia: ASX has fallen as conflict in the Middle East escalates.

• United States: Dow -1.61%, S&P 500 -0.56%, Nasdaq -0.26%. 

• Bonds: US 10-year yield at 4.13% and Australian 10-year yield at 4.79%.  

• Gold: Declined overnight.

Key Events Coming Up

• Wednesday 11th, March: US Core CPI 

• Thursday 12th, March: US Initial Jobless Claims

Investment Update

We are seeking non‑binding Expressions of Interest (EOIs) from qualified wholesale investors for L1 Gold Fund Limited (ASX: LGF) - a new listed investment company (LIC) being launched by L1 Capital. This communication is not an offer and is provided to gauge indicative interest only. 

L1 Capital’s existing unlisted Gold Fund has delivered approx. ~182.7% net return since inception (March 2025 – Jan 2026).  Due to strong levels of early interest the offer may close earlier than anticipated, there will be no further roadshows prior to listing. 

Link to AFR Article: L1 Group to raise hundreds of millions for new listed gold investment company  

Sponsor, Alignment & Co‑Investment

L1 Capital is an established investment manager with a diverse institutional and wholesale investor base, including superannuation funds, pension funds, asset consultants, financial planning groups, family offices and high‑net‑worth investors; managing $11.7bn FUM as at January 2026.

The LGF IPO is expected to launch with meaningful alignment, including:

• L1 principals are expected to commit significant co-investment (indicatively $100m) alongside investors (per internal indicative capital plan).

• Rollover capital from existing investors in the unlisted Gold Fund.

• Early interest from institutional cornerstone bidders.

•  This structure provides a substantial internal capital base before broader allocations.

Why this matters for portfolios: 

From an asset-allocation perspective, the strategy may be considered within alternatives or commodity-linked equities. Potential characteristics include: 

• Potentially lower correlation to traditional equities 

• Inflation security

• Tail-risk characteristics

• Potential alpha from long-short positioning

These characteristics may not always be present and can change over time. Please note that participation in any investment opportunity is subject to completion of due diligence, confirmation of eligibility, availability and final terms.