Geopolitical tensions are escalating as gas fields are being targeted, destabilising the global energy landscape. 

Global markets declined overnight as investor sentiment turned more cautious, leading to modest declines across major indices. Despite energy prices remaining relatively stable, broader concerns around growth and macro uncertainty weighed on equities. In the U.S., the Dow Jones fell 0.44%, the S&P 500 declined 0.27% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.28%.

Commentary from Industry Leaders

On Tuesday I attended a session with Mike Dorrell who is the Co-Founder and CEO of Stonepeak. From an investment perspective, Stonepeak focuses on digital infrastructure, energy / energy transition and transport & logistics, with particular depth in the US and Asia, and an emphasis on assets characterised by strong barriers to entry and network-driven business models.  

Key Takeaways: 

• Data Centres & Power Availability – While demand for data centres continues to be driven by AI, cloud and digitalisation, Mike emphasised that the key constraint is now power availability rather than demand.  In the US in particular, limited grid capacity is restricting new supply and shaping pricing dynamics.  Stonepeak is seeing this first-hand across its Asian digital infrastructure platforms, where the firm has been developing and building capacity with the expectation it would be deployed over a five-year period; however, in the last quarter large US hyperscalers have secured 100% of the capacity, reflecting the insatiable demand for data centre capacity.  This highlights the increasing strategic importance of access to power and development-ready sites.  More broadly, Stonepeak’s current development of ~$25bn+ in data centres globally is increasingly positioned to support this demand, providing critical infrastructure to existing and potentially new technology and hyperscale clients, and reinforcing the value of its build-led strategy.

• Current Opportunity Set & Deployment Discipline – The combination of higher interest rates, reduced capital availability and a more challenging fundraising environment has shifted the balance of power towards investors.  Mike noted that Stonepeak was relatively disciplined through the 2019–2022 period when valuations were elevated and has been more active over the past 6–7 quarters.  Recent underwriting assumptions have been materially above long-term averages, reflecting a more attractive risk/return environment.

• Structured Capital (~40–50% of portfolio) – Stonepeak makes extensive use of structured equity and preferred positions, which represent a meaningful portion of the portfolio and are a key differentiator of the strategy.  These structures provide debt-like protections (including priority cash flows, covenants and downside protection) while retaining equity upside, typically giving up only ~100–200bps of return.  This capability is supported by a team with experience across both private equity and credit, including individuals from distressed credit hedge fund backgrounds, allowing Stonepeak to underwrite and structure complex transactions.  In practice, this enables the firm to partner with corporates at points of balance sheet or strategic inflection, providing flexible capital solutions not readily available from traditional equity investors.  The result is an expanded opportunity set, improved cash yield and a portfolio with stronger downside protection and control relative to traditional minority equity approaches.

Economic News 

Australia’s labour market delivered a mixed result in February, with employment rising strongly by 48,900 jobs (above expectations) but the unemployment rate also increasing to 4.3%.

This apparent contradiction is explained by more people entering the workforce, pushing the participation rate up to 66.9%, meaning there are now more people actively looking for jobs. While job creation was solid, it was largely driven by part-time roles, particularly among older workers, while full-time employment declined and total hours worked fell slightly. In simple terms, there are more jobs, but also more people competing for them and the quality of those jobs has weakened. This suggests the labour market is still holding up but beginning to slow, which is exactly what the Reserve Bank is aiming for as higher interest rates start to take effect.

Market Snapshot 

• Australia: ASX has fallen as investors believe rates will continue to rise. 

• United States: Dow -0.44%, S&P 500 -0.27%, Nasdaq -0.28%. 

• Bonds: US 10-year yield at 4.25% and Australian 10-year yield at 4.97%.  

• Gold: Declined overnight.

Key Events Coming Up

• Wednesday 25th, March: US Crude Oil Inventories

• Thursday 26th, March: US Initial Jobless Claims

Investment Update

We are seeking non‑binding Expressions of Interest (EOIs) from wholesale investors in relation to a private market investment opportunity offshore.

This opportunity is not an offer and no offer documentation is currently being circulated. Any investment opportunity will only be made available following confirmation of wholesale investor status and distribution of relevant information at a later stage. 

Menlo Ventures – Inflection Fund IV

Menlo Ventures is one of the oldest and most established venture capital firms in Silicon Valley. Founded in 1976 and based in Menlo Park, California, the firm has backed some of the most successful technology companies globally. This opportunity provides direct exposure to a concentrated late-stage VC portfolio, with a material position in Anthropic, one of the leading global artificial intelligence platforms and a direct competitor to OpenAI.

Key Highlights:

• ~45% portfolio allocation to Anthropic (core position)

• Anthropic valuation increased from ~US$183bn to ~US$380bn

• Backed by major institutional partners including Amazon (AWS ecosystem)

• Additional exposure to high-growth AI and software names (Suno, Lovable, OpenEvidence)

Investment Rationale (Summary): 

• Exposure to enterprise AI adoption and large scale model monetisation.

• Positioned within global cloud and AI infrastructure ecosystems.

• Alignment with institutional capital and long term technology adoption trends.

Please note that participation in any investment opportunity is subject to completion of due diligence, confirmation of eligibility, availability and final terms.