Strategy

Australia's Growth Slows to 0.3% as Data Centre Construction Masks a Soft Economy

Christopher Gerace

6 Minutes

Australia's economy grew just 0.3% in Q1, propped up almost entirely by data centre construction. Strip that out and the picture is much softer - and that's before three rate rises and Middle East-driven fuel costs fully hit.

US equity markets delivered a mixed session to close out the week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a fresh record high while technology stocks took a breather. The Dow surged 1.73%, lifted by strong performances from UnitedHealth, JPMorgan Chase, Costco and Eli Lilly, as investors rotated into more traditional non-technology names. The S&P 500 edged modestly higher while the Nasdaq slipped slightly.

The trigger for the rotation was a sharp sell-off in chipmaker Broadcom, which fell over 12% after reporting revenue that came in marginally below expectations, a reminder of how high the bar has become for AI-linked stocks trading at elevated valuations.

Commentary from Industry Leaders

Another standout session from the Inside Network Equities & Growth Symposium was led by Joe Ziller, Founder and CIO of Ziller Funds Management, who made a compelling case for founder-led investing in global equities. A summary of his views is below.

Founder-led stocks structurally outperform. Joe's own analysis of MSCI All Country World Index constituents from 2006-2026 showed founder-led stocks delivering 3.3% annualised alpha over the broad market, translating to a 10x return versus 5x for all stocks over that period. Since the Ziller Global Fund's inception in November 2022, the fund has generated 4.2% pa of total alpha above its MSCI ACWI benchmark (21.0% pa net of fees vs. 16.8% pa benchmark), with alpha decomposed between a 2.7% "founder alpha" and 1.5% "active alpha" component.

Founder-led investing captures secular growth themes. Joe drew a compelling historical thread - from Richard Arkwright and textiles (19% of GDP growth 1760-1840), through Carnegie in steel, Edison in electrification, Rockefeller in oil and Gordon Moore in semiconductors - arguing that transformational GDP growth has always been concentrated in a narrow set of themes led by visionary founders. Looking forward to 2026-2036, Ziller sees AI, e-commerce, IoT, space access, new energy and cybersecurity as the dominant contributors to an estimated USD $38.7 trillion in incremental global GDP, all sectors where founder-led companies are disproportionately represented.

The "Q1 Founder" framework: quality meets output. At the heart of Ziller's process is a proprietary founder assessment matrix, scoring founders on both a Quality Rank (psychological and leadership attributes, from apathy and ego through to resilience, reason, and selfless leadership) and an Output Rank (business impact). Only "Q1" founders - high quality and high output, exemplified by Amazon - pass the investment hurdle. This behavioural lens draws on a broad academic base spanning Maslow, Duckworth, Collins and others.

Growth is currently cheap. Joe noted that the fund's internal 5-year total return estimate (based on current valuations) is currently at its most attractive level since inception, above +2 standard deviations, driven in part by the recent 2026 SaaS correction (-18.6% drawdown in the Q1 universe) creating entry opportunities. The fund's Q1 universe has navigated every major crisis since 1995 while continuing to compound, with the long-term upward trajectory intact through events from the GFC to COVID to Trump tariffs.

Economic News

The latest figures show Australia's economy grew by just 0.3% in the first three months of 2026, a notable slowdown from 0.9% at the end of last year. What makes this result interesting is that almost all of that growth came from one place: a surge in data centre construction, as companies race to build the digital infrastructure powering artificial intelligence and cloud computing. Take that away and the broader economy was quite soft. Everyday Australians are already feeling it - spending on non-essentials was nearly flat, wages are not keeping pace with the cost of living once you factor in population growth, and export income fell as natural disasters disrupted mining shipments on the east and west coasts.

The bigger question is what happens from here. These numbers were largely recorded before the Middle East conflict began driving fuel prices higher and before the Reserve Bank raised interest rates three times in quick succession. Higher interest rates make mortgages, business loans and credit card debt more expensive, which means less money in people's pockets to spend. With confidence among both households and businesses now declining and the property market beginning to soften, a number of economists believe the economy could actually shrink in the current quarter. For our clients, this is a timely reminder of why holding a well-diversified, quality-focused portfolio matters, particularly in periods where the economic outlook is uncertain.

Market Snapshot

  • Australia: Investors are rotating out of major miners

  • United States: Dow 1.73%, S&P 500 0.41%, Nasdaq -0.09%

  • Bonds: US 10-year yield at 4.47%, Australian 10-year yield at 4.91%

  • Gold: Increased slightly overnight

Key Events Coming Up

  • Friday 5 June: US Unemployment Rate (May)

Investment Update

We are pleased to present an opportunity to invest alongside the Lederer Group in the 275 Grey Street Fund, providing exposure to 100% ownership of a prime-grade office asset in Brisbane's tightly held South Bank precinct. Forecast distribution yield averaging ~8.0% over the hold period.

The Opportunity

275 Grey Street is a fully leased, institutional-grade office tower located within the South Bank office market.

The asset benefits from:

  • 100% occupancy

  • A WALE of approx. 8.4 years (office)

  • Anchored by ASX200 tenants Flight Centre & Virgin Australia (~85% of income)

  • Direct connectivity to public transport infrastructure and established retail and lifestyle amenities

Investment Highlights

Income profile
  • 100% occupancy with ~8.4-year WALE (office)

  • Long-dated leases with fixed rental increases

  • Reversionary upside (subject to market conditions)

  • Passing rents estimated below current market levels

  • Potential for rental uplift as leases expire and reset

Exposure to Brisbane Office Market
  • Benefiting from recent rental growth and demand for prime-grade assets

  • Near-city markets supported by limited supply in select locations

Quality Asset Fundamentals
  • Prime-grade (2016-built) office building

  • Strong tenant covenant with material income concentration

  • Integrated transport connectivity and established amenity

Indicative Returns
  • Forecast distribution yield averaging ~8.0% over the hold period

  • ~15.0% target IRR (post-fees, pre-tax)

  • ~1.9x equity multiple over a 5-year hold

Returns are indicative only and not guaranteed.

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Disclaimer: River X Financial Services Pty Ltd (ABN 26 674 273 011) is a holder of an Australian Financial Services Licence (556458). Christopher Gerace is an authorised representative (AR: 1316960) of River X Financial Services. CBG Global Investments Pty Ltd is contracted to River X Financial Services.

Please refer to River X Financial Services Guide at www.riverx.com.au or click here for further information about its services. All information contained on this webpage is of general nature only and does not take into account financial situation, objectives or needs of any person. Before acting on this information you should consider whether it is appropriate for you in light of your personal circumstances. It should not be used, relied upon, or treated as a substitute for specific professional advice. Where applicable, you should obtain an consider a Product Disclosure Statement before making an investment decision.

Copyright © 2025 CBG Global Investments - All Rights Reserved.

Logo
Connect With Us
Address

31/123 Pitt Street,

Sydney NSW

Disclaimer: River X Financial Services Pty Ltd (ABN 26 674 273 011) is a holder of an Australian Financial Services Licence (556458). Christopher Gerace is an authorised representative (AR: 1316960) of River X Financial Services. CBG Global Investments Pty Ltd is contracted to River X Financial Services.

Please refer to River X Financial Services Guide at www.riverx.com.au or click here for further information about its services. All information contained on this webpage is of general nature only and does not take into account financial situation, objectives or needs of any person. Before acting on this information you should consider whether it is appropriate for you in light of your personal circumstances. It should not be used, relied upon, or treated as a substitute for specific professional advice. Where applicable, you should obtain an consider a Product Disclosure Statement before making an investment decision.

Copyright © 2025 CBG Global Investments - All Rights Reserved.

Logo
Connect With Us
Address

31/123 Pitt Street,

Sydney NSW

Disclaimer: River X Financial Services Pty Ltd (ABN 26 674 273 011) is a holder of an Australian Financial Services Licence (556458). Christopher Gerace is an authorised representative (AR: 1316960) of River X Financial Services. CBG Global Investments Pty Ltd is contracted to River X Financial Services.

Please refer to River X Financial Services Guide at www.riverx.com.au or click here for further information about its services. All information contained on this webpage is of general nature only and does not take into account financial situation, objectives or needs of any person. Before acting on this information you should consider whether it is appropriate for you in light of your personal circumstances. It should not be used, relied upon, or treated as a substitute for specific professional advice. Where applicable, you should obtain an consider a Product Disclosure Statement before making an investment decision.

Copyright © 2025 CBG Global Investments - All Rights Reserved.